Jacob Zuma. Seems like everybody has an opinion about South Africa’s new president – even those who have never set foot in South Africa, let alone the continent.
I don’t know if he’ll be good, bad or mediocre as president. Dare I say nobody knows; it’s too early to tell – he’s had the top job for less than a week. What I do know however is that he’s not likely to be worse than his predecessors, with the notable exception of course of Nelson Mandela.
The bottom line is that, unlike all of the presidents and prime ministers who came before Mr. Mandela, Mr Zuma is the preferred choice of the vast majority of South Africans.
Yes, Mr. Zuma has what some see as a chequered past – as head of intelligence for the African National Congress’ armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, Mr. Zuma either presided over or condoned interrogation and disciplinary measures that were not in compliance with the Geneva Convention – violations which the world’s great bastion of human rights, the United States, has also continued to perpetrate in its bid to protect its national security. Okay – two wrongs don’t make a right, but at the time, South Africa was involved in a low-level civil war, and the ANC’s opponents were using similar methods – just ask the family of the late South African activist Steve Biko.
There’s also a cloud hanging over Mr. Zuma’s head regarding corruption and fraud charges related to alleged bribery and pay-offs in an arms deal scandal involving a French arms manufacturer. Perhaps South Africans will never know the exact circumstances or the exact amount of money that changed hands in order to finalise the deal and keep Mr. Zuma living the lifestyle to which he had become accustomed. Does it really matter? The Labour Party is still in power in the UK after what appear to have been rather questionable arms deals with the Saudis during the reign of Tony Blair.
These are details, and while I admit they are important, they are probably not as important as the big picture: most South Africans like Mr. Zuma very much and they like his party, the ANC, even more. The reason is extremely simple- only 16 years ago not only could most South Africans not vote – they could not live where they wanted, they could not aspire to many professional positions and they could not offer their children a quality education. They also could not look a white person in the face and tell him honestly what they thought of the humiliation which they, and generations before them, had had to endure.
The ANC changed that. Yes, there was President FW de Klerk who did his part on behalf of the ruling white Nationalist Party to negotiate a path towards majority rule, but does any white South African, in his heart-of-hearts really believe Mr. de Klerk would have made the first move, unprompted by the political pressure of the black majority?
I first travelled to South Africa, from Zimbabwe, in the early 1980’s. Zimbabwe was newly independent and most Zimbabweans were extremely pleased about this (apart from the Ndebele minority in Matabeleland who had to bear the brunt of a new kind of oppression brought about by Robert Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade). Crossing the border at Beitbridge from Zimbabwe to South Africa was like moving abruptly from sunshine to cloud cover. Yes, the roads were some of the best in the world, and the shops were filled with food and other products that could be found nowhere else on the continent, but what I remember most from those days is that black South Africans, for the most part, looked at their shoes when they spoke with or were spoken to by whites. I don’t think most whites noticed that. It was part of what, in local terms, appeared normal.
The ANC allowed black South Africans to raise their gaze and look anybody and everybody in the eye.
Do I think the ANC is perfect? Of course not. There is a risk of corruption, which took hold in the last administration, growing to greater levels. But then again, maybe it won’t. Mr. Zuma’s new cabinet includes a minister responsible for ensuring that senior politicians and civil servants stay on the straight and narrow. Will it work? Who knows! But what we certainly do not know is whether the plan is doomed to fail.
In what I see as a remarkable move, Mr. Zuma has brought the leader of the most right-wing white political party in parliament, Pieter Mulder, into his cabinet as deputy agriculture minister. The agriculture sector in South Africa has been under pressure and in a state of some crisis lately. A combination of unresolved land-reform issues and a former Agriculture minister perceived to be hostile to white farmers has led to a drop in production. Mr. Zuma knows that Afrikaners, some of whom are represented by Mr. Mulder, form an important skills base in the farming world. Without them, South Africa could, like Zimbabwe, move from being an exporter to an importer of food.
South African nay-sayers expected the currency, the Rand, to plummet if Mr. Zuma became president. It didn’t. Mr. Zuma may not have a post-graduate degree in economics, but he does have street smarts. He knows the importance of keeping strong people in his administration. The world’s longest serving finance minister, Trevor Manuel, is still in government. He’s not the finance minister any more but he has been given wide-ranging powers as head of a new planning commission. The man credited with bringing in more tax revenue to public coffers than all his predecessors, Pravin Gordhan, has taken over the finance portfolio. These appointments don’t sound to me like the work of a man who has no interest in keeping the economy on the right track.
South Africa’s economy has been doing very well since the ANC came to power. Of course, removing the stigma of pariah state has certainly helped. Sanctions are gone, disinvestment has become investment, and Johannesburg has become the shopping mall for the entire continent! While Europeans are taking lovely vacations in Cape Town and returning home with a carved wooden giraffe, Angolans, Congolese and Zimbabweans are returning home with pallet-loads of refrigerators and television sets.
The number of people who want to move to South Africa dramatically exceeds the number of people who want to leave. Africa knows that it has a treasure in South Africa. South Africa has to work, and Mr. Zuma knows this. While in the previous administration under former president Thabo Mbeki, Mr. Zuma mediated peace negotiations in Burundi. He knows what’s at stake.
The coming years are not likely to be easy nor are they likely to be trouble and scandal-free. But let’s not forget that Mr. Zuma and the ANC came to power in a truly free and fair election. Mr. Zuma, unlike his predecessor, has time for the grass roots and seems to understand the need for faster service delivery to those still without running water and electricity.
Barring some unforeseen disaster, the ANC is likely to win the next election five years from now. As long as most South Africans remember what they had prior to 1994, expecting the electorate to try something else is akin to asking Indonesians to vote for a return to Dutch rule.
David Smith
Director – Okapi Consulting
Johannesburg, South Africa