Albany Blog

There is a new rumor every week in what remains of Lebanon’s Nahr el Bared refugee camp.  The hearsay this week claims the Palestinian refugee situation will be one of the priorities of the country’s new cabinet.  Palestinian refugees will soon be granted civil rights preparing them for resettlement in Lebanon, says the rumor.

One could almost be forgiven for believing the gossip.  Prime Minister Designate Saad Hariri has meet with representatives of Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee community since his recent election and has voiced his support for better living conditions for refugees.  Moreover, it appears Hariri has a level of personal compassion for the suffering of Palestinian refugees.  On the surface, it appears the situation for Palestinian refugees is set to improve.

Bumps in the road

There are spanners in the works, however, including the Maronite Christian opposition leader General Michel Aoun.  To date, Aoun has been the most outspoken critic of rebuilding the war-torn Nahr el Bared (NBC) refugee camp.  Yet his rhetoric indicates that he is not opposed to the concept of rebuilding NBC.  He is merely using his opposition as a political tool.  He knows the current government would like the refugee camp to be rebuilt.  Aoun pushes to stall the rebuilding process, thereby giving himself leverage for future horse-trading.  It is not only by working to stall the rebuilding of NBC that Aoun can complicate the lives of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

After finding success in the recent parliamentary elections, Aoun has been demanding a number of key ministerial portfolios for his political bloc, including the Ministries of Interior, Social Affairs, Telecommunications and Agriculture.  There could be further negative repercussions for Palestinian refugees if Aoun gets the Ministry of Interior because the Department of Palestinian Affairs is housed within this ministry.

Notably, the opposition politicians other than Aoun are not making much noise about the Palestinian refugee issue.  Prior to the parliamentary elections, a few opposition politicians tried to politicize the subject to little avail.  The ruling March 14 alliance did a good job of disarming the issue by touting their anti-tawteen (naturalization) credentials, which leads to a very important point.  On a deeper level, there is a tremendous, visceral opposition not only to tawteen, but also to Palestinians in general, by many of Lebanon’s Christians (including those affiliated with the March 14 alliance).  Hence, the March 14 victory in the elections does not necessarily mean the new parliament will be entirely friendly to Palestinian refugees.

Wider considerations

Although Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee issue does not appear to be something that must be defended at all costs, it is clearly close to Hariri’s heart.  Furthermore, the topic will obviously be a key element in the Obama administration’s Middle East peace efforts.  In fact, in light of Obama’s push for peace and the interests of regional actors, it is possible that Lebanon’s policy towards Palestinian refugees will be imposed on the country from the outside and not grown organically from within.   Considering the frailty of the Lebanese political equation, this may not be the wisest of policies.  Many Lebanese view the Palestinian refugee presence in their country as the catalyst for the 1975 civil war.

In conclusion, it is extremely difficult to anticipate what shape the new Hariri government’s policy towards Palestinian refugees in Lebanon will take.  It is likely that Hariri himself does not yet know.  With a hawkish government dominating in Israel and little political will for peace from other regional actors, it is likely that Obama’s Middle East peace plan will come to naught.  At that point, Lebanon’s Palestinians will do well simply to keep their heads above water.

John Redwine is an independant Media Consultant for Albany Associates

The structure of Lebanese politics is defined by religion. Half of the tiny Mediterranean country’s parliamentary seats is reserved for politicians from various branches of Islam, while the other half is dedicated to the similarly numerous Christian denominations. This political formula is a result of the Taif Agreement, which facilitated the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1990. The agreement is built on the assumption that the country’s population is split evenly between the two religious camps. This assumption remains today, as the country has not held a census since 1932. Lebanon’s political parties do not care to verify their supposition with a census, as it may reveal their minority status. This disregard for the possibility of demographic shift has consequences. For example, the rigid political system has lead to stagnation in the granting of Lebanese citizenship. This is, in part, why the overwhelming majority of Palestinian refugees who have come to Lebanon in the last sixty years have not been naturalized.

The Christian community of Lebanon sees the 200,000 plus Sunni Muslim Palestinian refugees as a threat to the country’s precarious religious balance. The Lebanese Shiites also fear that the naturalization of the Sunni Palestinians will eat into their share of the political pie. In turn, Lebanon’s Sunni Muslims must also appear to oppose the naturalization of Palestinian refugees, to avoid accusations that they are trying to land a demographic windfall.
In fact, the very word for naturalization (tawteen) has taken on a negative connotation in the Lebanese dialect. The specter of Palestinian tawteen has been raised by both incumbent and opposition political parties in the run-up to past elections. And with Lebanon heading to the polls on June 7, the xenophobic rhetoric resounds. Recently, an opposition politician has leveled charges at the sitting governmental majority bloc, claiming “the current plans of the [bloc] are to guarantee an absolute majority [in parliament]… to naturalize the Palestinians in Lebanon.”

Unfortunately, baseless accusations of this nature have deeper repercussions than mere libel. A paralytic fear of progress on the Palestinian refugee front stymies more nuanced arguments for their right to own land or their right to work in mainstream professions. This is problematic, as the reported unemployment rate among Palestinian refugees remains above sixty percent. The resulting poverty, combined with the fragmented and ineffective Palestinian security in the camps, fuels the entrenched militant organizations present in them.
Unfortunately, the politicized environment of pre-election Lebanon means the sitting parliamentary majority can only take a defensive position and reaffirm their opposition to tawteen. But no matter the outcome of the approaching elections, the new Government of Lebanon will again have to face the Palestinian refugee issue. A re-energized dialogue with the Palestinian representatives who will engage with the government is an obvious step. It is also vitally important that the government develops and promotes a more nuanced approach to the Palestinian refugee question within the Lebanese pubic mind. A rootless, directionless and idle population is clearly no boon to the country. A concerted effort to help the Lebanese public see the benefit of a basic level of human rights for Palestinian refugees is sorely needed.

The successful realization of a ‘new deal’ for the Palestinian refugees of Lebanon depends on both a shift in the public perception of the Palestinians and a reinvigorated political campaign on behalf of the government. Assuming the political will exists on behalf of the next Lebanese government, the international community can and should support them in this process. And with the West’s renewed interest in finding a comprehensive solution to the Arab – Israeli crisis, that support is likely to be readily available in the near future. All that remains is to apply it.